Uncertainty is going to be the one certainty for 2025
Tuesday, December 31, 2024
If you remember the first Trump presidency, it seemed like some major news broke every month, either creating outrage or introducing a new avenue for corruption. Things were unpredictable and some level of volatility ruled the day.
My sense is that while things will be more stable - wealthy Americans and corporations seem prepared and willing to pay (or bribe) to enjoy some stability - there’s still a lot of risk. Additionally, that risk itself is unpredictable. A stupid example: I accelerated the purchase of gear just in case tariffs to really kick in. Now it looks like Trump may be willing to excuse companies for various reasons.
I just don’t know how much the rest of the country will be willing to accept the direction the wealthiest want to go, even amongst the Trump voters. There’s at least one common thread between January 6th and the public discourse around Luigi Mangione’s assassination of a healthcare executive: people are angry. That anger is getting redirected toward violence. The question is whether there’s a trend line here and where it’s going. For better or worse, this sort of violence isn’t necessarily new for America, but it feels different to me.
I keep thinking about the line from “The Big Short” where the Brownfield guys explain their investment thesis:
People hate to think about bad things happening so they always underestimate their likelihood.
I’ve definitely been avoiding thinking about the worst that’s possible in the next 4 years…